It may not be September yet. But you can definitely see it from here. And you know what I see on my viewfinder? I see a few guys who are about to blow up the record book.
Want a sneak preview? Or course you do. Which means it’s time once again to roll out another edition of our Weird and Wild History Watch.
Look out. It’s the Juan-bino!
Back in March, in my preseason column on the numbers that would define baseball in 2024, I wrote these words: Juan Soto is the Yankees’ biggest trade since Babe Ruth.
For some reason, a lot of people thought that was clickbait. I chuckled then. I’m laughing even harder now. Here’s why:
If Juan Soto just keeps doing what he’s done for his first five months as a Yankee, he’s going to finish with about 9.7 WAR and a 189 OPS+, according to Baseball Reference. Is that good? I’m guessing you have no idea how good.
Here’s your comprehensive list of veteran players in the live-ball era who were traded and then fired off an OPS+ of 180 or better, with at least nine wins above replacement, in their first season with their new team:
| YEAR | PLAYER | WAR | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1920 |
Babe Ruth, Yankees |
11.9 |
255 |
That’s a wrap!
(Source: Baseball Reference / Stathead)
But now, unless something nutty happens, we’re six weeks from expanding that list … to George H. (Bambino) Ruth and Juan Jose Soto. All I can say is: I tried to warn ya.
(Author’s note: Just to head off the nitpicker traffic, let’s concede there’s one more elephant in this room: 1993 Barry Bonds, who did this in his first season as a Giant. But did Bonds get traded to the Giants? No, he did not. He signed as a free agent. So is that the same thing? Not quite!)
OK then. Now, more on Juan Soto …
The Judge and Soto Show
The dynamic duo celebrates yet another homer. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
They’re the Ruth and Gehrig of the 21st Century. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Unless you’re planning your 100th birthday party, you — and everyone else reading this — have never seen anything like this baseball tag team for the ages. In all sorts of ways.
The 190-190 Club — Let’s head on over to FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created+ leaderboard, to see how that metric is measuring the full offensive impact of these two monsters. Heading into Thursday, Judge’s wRC+ was a massive 223. Soto was at 191. Unreal.
So how often have any two teammates had seasons in which their wRC+ were both that high — by which I mean at least 90 percent better than league average? There has been only one other duo like this in modern times. Guess who.
| YEAR | TEAMMATES |
|---|---|
|
1927 |
Ruth/Gehrig |
|
1928 |
Ruth/Gehrig |
|
1930 |
Ruth/Gehrig |
(SOURCE: FanGraphs)
To drag any other set of teammates into this, you’d have to lower the bar from 190 all the way to 170. And even then, in the modern era, you’d only be adding Johnny Mize/Joe Medwick (1937 Cardinals) and Kevin Mitchell/Will Clark (1989 Giants). So savor what you’re watching!
Walk this way — Soto is on pace to walk 134 times this year. Judge’s pace: 132. And they’re doing that in a season when only one player in the entire National League (Kyle Schwarber) is even on pace to walk 100 times, by the way.
Want to guess how many teammates in the modern era have ever walked 130 times apiece? Right. That would be none. How about 120 times apiece? Yep. Also none. The closest any pair has come: Ruth (128) and Gehrig (117), naturally, for the 1931 Yankees.
Base Camp — If you’re ever looking for these two dudes, you know where you can find them? On base. Where else?
Judge is on pace to reach base 331 times this year (via hit, walk or hit-by-pitch). Soto would reach base 310 times at this rate. Would you believe that the only active player who has reached base that many times in a season just retired while I was writing this? (Joey Votto.)
But if both of these men get there, it would launch them into even more rarified air. How many sets of teammates have ever had at least 310 times on base apiece in the same season? Here we go again.
Ruth and Gehrig did that three times (1927-30-31). And incredibly, the 1930 Cubs had three hitters do it (Hack Wilson, Kiki Cuyler and Woody English).
But what other dynamic duo has done it in the past nine decades? That would be nobody … until these two on-base machines in the Bronx finish filling up the basepaths.
The 100-Trot Club — I could do this all day, but let’s spin off one more wild Judge-Soto nugget because what the heck. Judge has already mashed 48 homers. Soto is up to 36. So they need to smoke only 16 more in the next month and a half to become the sixth teammate duo to combine for 100 homers. Here come the others. Fascinating company!
| TOTAL | TEAM | HITTERS |
|---|---|---|
|
115 |
1961 Yankees |
Maris (61)/Mantle (54) |
|
110 |
2001 Giants |
Bonds (73)/Aurilia (37) |
|
107 |
1927 Yankees |
Ruth (60)/Gehrig (47) |
|
101 |
1998 Cardinals |
McGwire (70)/Lankford (31) |
|
100 |
2002 Rangers |
A-Rod (57)/Palmeiro (43) |
(Source: Baseball Reference)
Witt and Wisdom
Bobby Witt Jr. could join the 140-220 Club. (Katie Stratman / USA Today)
Have we seen many shooting stars like Bobby Witt Jr. streaking across our skies? I don’t think we have.
He ranks No. 1 in the sport in sprint speed. He ranks No. 1 among all infielders in outs above average. His batting average since the All-Star break is .445. And none of that is even the stuff that propelled him into this History Watch column! Here comes that stuff.
The 140-220 Club — If the Royals shortstop keeps filling up the Runs and Hits columns in the box scores at this clip for another six weeks, he’s going to finish this season with 141 runs scored and 227 hits. Just so you know how cool that would be, the 140-220 Club hasn’t admitted a new member in 88 years.
Last to get there: Charlie Gehringer in 1936. … The only other American League player to do it in the past 100 years: That Lou Gehrig guy again, in 1930. … The only other AL hitters to top 140 and 220 before that: Ty Cobb (1911) and Nap Lajoie (1901) … who both did it before the invention of the refrigerator!
Now sprinkle on a little 30-30 seasoning — But Witt is also cruising toward 30 homers and 30 steals. So now let’s ask: How many players in history have made it into that 140-220 Club and the 30-30 Club in the same season? If you guessed zero, that’s some astute guessing.
Speaking of 30-30 — I started wondering how rare it is for any man to lead the major leagues in batting average in a year when he was also going 30-30. Is once in history rare enough for you?
Mookie Betts did that in 2018. But even if we lower the bar to admit guys who just led their own league in hitting, only Christian Yelich (2019) joins the fun. Amazing. But hang on, because here comes an even cooler club Witt could enter …
Batting champs who played ’em all — It’s the fourth week of August, and how many games has Witt missed? Not one. Does he ever get tired? I only ask because in modern times, we never see batting champs who play every single game.
In the era of either 154-game or 162-game seasons, exactly two men have led the major leagues in batting average while playing every one of their team’s games. You’ve heard of them!
| YEAR | PLAYER | GAMES |
|---|---|---|
|
1946 |
Stan Musial |
156 of 156 |
|
1943 |
Stan Musial |
157 of 157 |
|
1934 |
Lou Gehrig |
154 of 154 |
(Source: Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia)
FYI — The 1946 Cardinals needed to play two extra games with the Dodgers to decide the National League. … The ’43 Cardinals needed to play three extra games because of ties related to weather and darkness. Stuff happened then! … And for everyone who wants to bring up Tommy Davis (who played 163 games while leading the league in 1962) … sorry! The Dodgers played 165 games that year because of three tie-breaker games with the Giants.
He has a shot at the XBH-single Double-Double — Finally, is anyone else rooting for Witt to lead his league in extra-base hits and singles? It isn’t out of the question.
Witt is five back of Aaron Judge for the AL lead in extra-base hits. And he’s nine behind Jose Altuve for the league lead in singles. I know this is a long shot, but I mention it because this one is really hard to do.
The last man to lead his league in both categories in the same year: Stan Musial (yeah, him again) … nearly 80 years ago, in 1946. The only other player to do it in the live-ball era: Musial’s Cardinals teammate, Enos Slaughter, in 1942. The only two to do it in the dead-ball era: the usual suspects! In other words … Ty Cobb twice and Nap Lajoie twice.
So that’s the company Bobby Witt Jr. is keeping. How special is this guy?
De La Cruz Control
Elly De La Cruz, the speedy slugger. (Max Correa / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA Today)
While we’re on the subject of shortstops who seem to enjoy showing up all over the league leaderboard, it’s time for the mandatory Elly De La Cruz portion of these festivities.
Do you run across many humans in your travels who lead the major leagues in stolen bases by 21 steals … but also have a higher slugging percentage than Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber? I don’t. But the shortstop for those Cincinnati Reds is doing those things. So let’s see where that might lead him …
The other 20-20 Club — You know how many men have led the major leagues in stolen bases by at least 20 more than the next closest speed demon … in a season when they were also hitting at least 20 home runs? Who out there said none? Bingo! Rickey Henderson had three seasons in which he hit 20 and led the American League in steals by at least 20 — but thanks to Vince Coleman, Rickey led the majors in none of those seasons. So …
Elly and Willie — All right, let’s do it this way. Let’s keep it simple. Here’s the list of everyone who has ever led the major leagues in steals by any margin … and also hit at least 20 homers that season. Any of these names look familiar?
| PLAYER | YEAR | HR | SB |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Willie Mays |
1956 |
36 |
40 |
|
Willie Mays |
1957 |
35 |
38 |
|
Willie Mays |
1958 |
29 |
31 |
|
Mike Trout |
2012 |
30 |
49 |
|
Ronald Acuña Jr. |
2023 |
41 |
73 |
Elly and Honus — Aw, why not do one more. What about guys who led the major leagues in steals while even leading just their own team in homers? Glad you asked. Last to do that: Willie Mays … for the 1958 Giants. But even better, the last shortstop to do that? Would you believe Honus Wagner … for the 1908 Pirates? How’s that for some serious Elly name-dropping?
The Greatest Shoh on Earth
Ohtani is on the precipice of 40-40. But could he also achieve a 50-50 season? (Joe Puetz / USA Today)
Finally, does the name Ohtani ring a bell?
It’s now considered a violation on two continents to write one of these History Watch columns without a fun-filled Shohei Ohtani section. So did you know that …
Back-to-back back-back-back-back — It was just last year, when he was still an Angel, that Ohtani led the American League in homers. A year later, guess who’s leading the National League in homers? Yes, that would be the DH for the Dodgers. So assuming he holds off Braves bopper Marcell Ozuna …
How many other men have led the AL and NL in homers in back-to-back seasons (in any order)? Would you believe … none? And the only three mashers since 1900 to lead both of those leagues at any point in their careers are Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire and Sam Crawford.
(Asterisk alert! McGwire led the majors in homers in 1997 and the NL in homers in 1998 — but got traded in midseason in ’97 so he didn’t lead either the AL or NL.)
Doing the Slug Street Shuffle — If you’ve been paying attention, though, you know that Shohei isn’t just leading the National League in homers. He’s also leading the league in slugging. But wait. Are you thinking: Didn’t he also lead the American League in slugging just last year?
Well, if that’s what you’re thinking, you’re thinking right along with me. So now let’s ask: How many men have led the AL and NL in slugging in back-to-back seasons?
The answer is going to bear an uncanny resemblance to the home run question we just tackled. By which I mean … nobody!
So Ohtani would become the first ever to do that, too. And he’d join quite the exalted trio of men who have led both the AL and NL at any point since 1900. It’s only Frank Robinson … McGwire … and Dick Allen.
Yeah, but what about OPS? On one hand, I regret to report that Ohtani would not be the first to lead the AL and NL in OPS in back-to-back seasons. On the other hand, it’s been a while!
If Ohtani winds up leading the NL in OPS, he would be the first to top both leagues back-to-back since … Ed Delahanty did it 122 years ago. Delahanty led the NL for the 1901 Phillies, then led the AL as a member of the 1902 Senators.
And have you ever heard anyone say: Wow. That Shohei Ohtani sure does remind me of Ed Delahanty? Of course, you haven’t … possibly because Ed Delahanty’s Instagram account apparently was offline back then. But also because …
This guy could go 50-50 on us – I’ve been predicting for years we would see an active hitter become the first member of the elusive 50-homer, 50-steal club. I just thought that active hitter would be Ronald Acuña Jr., not a guy who will probably be the Dodgers’ best starting pitcher by this time next year. But check out Ohtani’s current homer/steal pace:
HR — 49
SB — 49
Whoa. Could this actually be happening? Oh, absolutely. Except for a huge June (12 homers in 26 games), Ohtani’s home run pace has held mostly steady. So that’s clearly within reach. But his stolen-base pace? It’s trending dramatically upward all of a sudden.
Before the All-Star break — 23 SB in 94 games
Since the All-Star break — 16 SB in 31 games
So does that suggest to you that Shohei has 50-50 on his mind? How could it not? But whether he gets there or not, he’s in position to obliterate the modern record for most stolen bases by a guy who led his league in homers. In fact, only four home run champs in the past 100 years have even stolen 30 (or more), let alone 50:
Jose Canseco, 1988 — 40 SB
Matt Kemp, 2011 — 40 SB
Larry Walker, 1997 — 33 SB
Hank Aaron, 1963 — 31 SB
Which means … here we are again. Shohei Ohtani doesn’t merely make history. He should just buy the History Channel, because he’s baseball’s ultimate Modern Marvel.
(Top photo of Juan Soto: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)